On Thursday, November 25th 2010, Tonga will leap into the unknown.
It’ll be an important historical day, but it is only one day, just a minute sliver of time. It is a paper-thin wedge separating the past from the future of Tonga. That day in itself is not important other than a historical marker. What is important are the events of the days before, and more importantly, the days coming immediately afterwards.
If we are to divine the immediate future, we should take stock of the recent past.
The King ‘officially’ got the ball rolling back in 2008, as a Coronation gift. Since then the ball has been kicked about with the dexterity that would confuse the Spanish World Cup winning football team.
Perhaps part of the problem is the people overseeing the changes are in a peculiar position of both trying to phase themselves out, whilst trying to survive politically. It’s as if they want to be seen embracing the new order, while trying to appease the old. You know what happens when you try to please everyone. Some commentators say this is the most unpopular administration of recent times. As a transitional parliament, they’ve failed miserably.
Consider there was no broad programme of education and consultation. There were no referenda. That the important constitutional arrangements were all discussed behind closed doors amongst themselves. Consider the launching of a Royal Commission into electoral reform – then ignoring the recommendations. Consider the calling for a enquiry into the Ashika tragedy – again ignoring the findings. They welcomed a new openness, then took pot shots at the foreign Commissioner for not understanding and disrespecting the Tongan ways. And can someone please tell me if they’ve ever officially released the report?
Through the confusion and the hazy politics I suspect, maybe even hope, all the above will shadow this election, with people remembering who is responsible when they go to vote. That would not bode well for those hopefuls in the current administration.
This Fred Sevele-led government’s tenure was born from the civil service strike of 2005. It started out with great hope. Sevele was seen a champion of the democratic movement. Barely a year into his term, however, protests at the lack of changes led to the nation’s capital being burnt by rioters. What currency of trust they had left was finally used up when the Commission of enquiry into the Ashika tragedy, laid the blame on its ineptness.
Perhaps Sevele could have stepped down. That may have endeared him to the traditional sensibilities of a still largely conservative Tonga, a Tonga that still forgives sincere humility from its leaders. Instead, he posed a stand-up attitude and did the opposite, forcing the highly regarded Attorney General to resign. Many think the Attorney General was preparing a case that could have put prominent figures on the Defence stand.
It is clear that there is widespread dissatisfaction, the kind of dissatisfaction that gives birth to a transformational leader to seize the momentum. Sadly, Tonga lacks one. There’s no Lincoln, or a Mandela, or, dare I say it, even a King Tupou the First. It seems that when it comes to the crunch, the opposition have dropped their marbles.
A democracy is only as strong as the opposition it creates. So far the Peoples Representatives (PR) has only ever been a group banded together as a general opposing force to the status quo. There has never been a clear platform to unite them. As such, they’ve been easy to divide. A running joke has been the malleability of those pro-democracy PRs who change their tune once the government offers them a ministerial posting. And there have been a few of them. The 17 PRs coming in post-November will need to be better than that.
They have to settle down and actually run the country. Think of laws, develop policies for social, economic and political reforms. Be accountable and transparent. And, most importantly, they must have the greatest love for people and country and place them first and foremost. If they don’t, they shouldn’t be there. There will be no more jousting at the windmills because they are the ones in power having to earn their salaries as the new popularly elected Government... whoever they may be.
Their job won’t be easy considering there are still quirks that raise big questions. There’s the anomaly of 17 PRs for over 100,000 people, while there’s nine representatives for just 33 nobles. I’m sure there’s a good reason for that. I just don’t see it.
As I understand it, a Prime Minister could be picked from any of the 26 elected representatives.
What if it’s one of the nine nobles, where we have the laughable situation of a PM who comes to power on less than 33 people? What if one of the four un-elected sidekicks to the PM is appointed? Who are they and should they be there? Why not just have four more peoples’ reps instead?
The King is still uncomfortably close to the ‘wheeling and dealing’. He has the final say on any stalemates. Not exactly a fully surrendering of his executive powers to be a figurehead. A royalist splinter group could well form around him. Tonga needed him to make a definitive break.
So, come November, the devil is well and truly in the details. He has a mate by the name of Murphy’s Law, which means it will probably get worse before it gets better... let’s hope it eventually does get better.
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